It has become time to close the books on the first half-year of 2023, as we take a look at the performance snapshot for June.
The month saw economic activity generally softening, though US data seemed resilient. However, non-farm payrolls came in lower than expected, indicating that maybe also the US economy might be beginning to cool off. As a rule of thumb, every rate hike usually is only trickling through to the economy with an 18-month lag, and given we are nearing 18 month window since the first hikes, the effects might now be starting to show.
Inflation continued to decline both in the US and the Euro Area to 4.0% and 5.5%, respectively. On interest rates, the Fed paused the rate hikes, as Powell & Co did not hike rates for the first time since early 2022, with the policy rate now at 5.25%, albeit with further hikes expected. In Europe, the ECB continued hiking to 4.0% in June, with the Euro strengthening against the Dollar.
For my three All Seasons Portfolios, we, in general, bounced back in June after the disappointing preceding month. While all portfolios have a positive return YTD, the EUR portfolio traded on DEGIRO saw some weakness this month, mainly due to gold, VIX, and government bonds posting negative monthly results.
As for the KiwiTrader portfolio, which is denominated in Swedish Krona (but predominately with EUR denominated assets), the weaker SEK against major currencies has boosted the returns to the benefit of the copiers of this portfolio. Ignoring the currency effect, the growth has been a bit slower YTD (+0.8% vs. +6.35%).
(If you need a reminder of the KiwiTrader portfolio, which you can copy automatically if you are a Swedish investors, you can get a bit more flavor about this All Seasons Portfolio with 27 assets in the April 2023 monthly update post.)
Let’s start out with looking at a table over the monthly returns of the past 24 months, along with summary performance over select periods (YTD, 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months). The overall return patters are (and should be) quite similar between the portfolios, as all follow the same core recipe, albeit with some differences, different levels of leverage, and different currency exposures.
While the core principles between all my portfolios are similar, as they are traded with difference brokers with different opportunities (available ETFs, fractional trading, leverage, etc.), the portfolios may differ slightly in allocations. You find all three depicted in the circle diagrams here below, and I am sure you recognize the theme of 30% stocks, 45-55% bonds, 15-20% commodities and gold, as suggested by Ray Dalio / Bridgewater Associates. All portfolios have, however, some additional allocation to alternative investments (volatility, real estate, insurance, carbon credits, cryptocurrencies, etc.).
And here below, you find the current allocations as at end of June 2023. All portfolios are, at the time being, rather close to their aimed weights.
With that general part of this post behind us, let us now take a closer look at the June performance in isolation.
Here follows two charts of return contribution from each asset class for my portfolios traded on eToro (USD) and KiwiTrader (EUR). The main difference from these portfolios is described by currency effects this month, as EUR has gained versus USD, while also the asset exposures are slightly different (for example, floating rate notes are only available in the KiwiTrader portfolio, and are absent in the eToro portfolio).
In the eToro portfolio, stocks surged ahead in June, contributing to the positive return. This was then somewhat taken back by the insurance premium paid with the VIX exposure, as low realized stock market volatility drives the forward-looking implied volatility lower.
Measuring my KiwiTrader portfolio in EUR, it tells another story. Here, the Stocks sleeve was on the decline, and the government bond part rescued some of the decline. However, this chart does not correctly show the total return this month, as the portfolio increased by 0.55% in June, rather than having declined 1.77%. I will attempt to troubleshoot the data.
For intra-month movements, you’ll find them for all three portfolios here below with the development of each asset class, as well as the portfolios (black line).
As alluded to earlier in this post, VIX has continued to fall off a cliff, but this paid insurance premium only has a marginal impact on the portfolios due to its low allocation (2% of the total portfolio). In early days of July, VIX has came alive again, at least relatively, meaning that there could be good entry points here again to insure against equity drawdowns.
Otherwise, commodities have been positive contributors, alongside cryptocurrencies (in the portfolios that holds this asset class).
The “traditional” components of a 60/40 portfolio can be found somewhere in the middle.
Turning to the topic of dividends, we received a pay-out in late June from DTLE (iShares 20+ year Treasury Bonds ETF – EUR Hedged). The portfolio’s rolling 12-month dividend yield now stands at 2.37%.
If you are looking for getting started with your own All Seasons Portfolio and need some inspiration, check out my post on How to get started with the All Seasons Portfolio strategy. While stocks have been a great investment the last decade, there are no guarantees that this trend will last, as their continued success depends on several factors. Instead, consider diversifying your portfolio to include other asset classes, and benefit from the rebalancing period over the long-term, as described in this article.
Thank you yet again for following my blog about risk parity investing and the All Seasons Portfolio. And once again, I welcome any feedback you may be willing to share on these monthly posts’ form and structure. You can do so by dropping a comment in the comment section below or via email to nicholas@allseasonsportfolio.eu. The greatest value I have received from upkeeping this blog is the conversations that arise with great people, such as yourselves, about ideas on investing and strategies.
Thank you for your shown interest and attention.
We’ll catch up soon for the next update!
Nicholas Ahonen
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