Welcome back for another All Seasons Portfolio update, this time for May 2023. As a reminder, I am using an updated form of these monthly posts to make them more concise and let the focus stay on the portfolios.
Hence, we will be looking at the historical performance of three All Seasons Portfolios (with only small nuanced differences between them), current asset weights, and zooming in on the performance in May 2023.
For my three All Seasons Portfolios, May gave little to cheer about across the board. If you need a reminder of the KiwiTrader portfolio, which you can copy automatically if you are a Swedish investors, you can get a bit more flavor about this All Seasons Portfolio with 27 assets in the April 2023 monthly update post.
Let’s start out with looking at a table over the monthly returns of the past 24 months, along with summary performance over select periods (YTD, 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months). The overall return patters are (and should be) quite similar between the portfolios, as all follow the same core recipe, albeit with some differences, different levels of leverage, and different currency exposures.
While the core principles between all my portfolios are similar, as they are traded with difference brokers with different opportunities (available ETFs, fractional trading, leverage, etc.), the portfolios may differ slightly in allocations. You find all three depicted in the circle diagrams here below, and I am sure you recognize the theme of 30% stocks, 45-55% bonds, 15-20% commodities and gold, as suggested by Ray Dalio / Bridgewater Associates. All portfolios have, however, some additional allocation to alternative investments (volatility, real estate, insurance, carbon credits, cryptocurrencies, etc.).
And here below, you find the current allocations as at end of May 2023. All portfolios are, at the time being, rather close to their aimed weights.
With that general part of this post behind us, let us now take a closer look at the May performance in isolation.
Here follows two charts of return contribution from each asset class for my portfolios traded on eToro (USD) and KiwiTrader (EUR). The main difference from these portfolios is described by currency effects this month, as EUR has gained versus USD, while also the asset exposures are slightly different (for example, floating rate notes are only available in the KiwiTrader portfolio, and are absent in the eToro portfolio).
In the eToro portfolio, the numbers are not properly lining up, as I changed the holdings of my stock portion of the portfolio in the month, and my charting tool only shows the contribution from current constituents. Hence, return contribution from all asset classes are exaggerated. Still, we can conclude that the rising rates at the longer maturities of the Treasury Bond universe, led to this sleeve being the largest drag of the portfolio.
Measuring my KiwiTrader portfolio in EUR, it tells another story. Here, the Stocks sleeve was intact, so it shows the positive contribution from this asset class. However, also floating rate bonds, gold, and inflation-linked bonds contributed positively, while long-term government bonds held us back.
For intra-month movements, I include the below two charts (again for EUR and USD), depicting the ups and downs of all asset classes, as well as the portfolios (black line).
Notably, VIX have fallen off a cliff, being down 7.5% and 20% in the two portfolios. As it is a small insurance against tail risk, and the holding is not that large, the impact on the portfolio was not that noticeable (-0.12% for the USD portfolio with a -20% drawdown).
As for dividends, there were no dividends in May for the EUR portfolio, why we stand at the same rolling 12M dividends as last month. The portfolio’s dividend yield is 2.31%.
If you are looking for getting started with your own All Seasons Portfolio and need some inspiration, check out my post on How to get started with the All Seasons Portfolio strategy. While stocks have been a great investment the last decade, there are no guarantees that this trend will last, as their continued success depends on several factors. Instead, consider diversifying your portfolio to include other asset classes, and benefit from the rebalancing period over the long-term, as described in this article.
Thank you yet again for following my blog about risk parity investing and the All Seasons Portfolio. And once again, I welcome any feedback you may be willing to share on these monthly posts’ form and structure. You can do so by dropping a comment in the comment section below or via email to nicholas@allseasonsportfolio.eu. The greatest value I have received from upkeeping this blog is the conversations that arise with great people, such as yourselves, about ideas on investing and strategies.
Thank you for your shown interest and attention.
We’ll catch up soon for the next update!
Nicholas Ahonen
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