eToro Post – Where does the All Seasons Portfolio fit in your wealth structure?

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A common question that I get around the All Seasons Portfolio strategy from investors, especially asked by the not-yet-old ones, is why one should invest in a low risk portfolio with decreased volatility. The less skeptical investors also add a question about where the ASP fits in one’s overall wealth allocations.

Naturally, regardless your age and investment horizon, lower risk portfolios are beneficial as they reduce the stress experienced during panicked markets. Even though the expected absolute return any year is also lower, the decreased volatility will mean a smoother ride with similar long-term annual returns

Mainly, it is a matter of narrowing the cluster of outcomes of each year around a mean, and avoid the big swings from one year to the next. But it doesn't necessarily mean you should devote all your savings to a low-risk strategy and completely abandon the more "exciting" investments.

When this is understood, a common follow-up question is where a portfolio such as the All Seasons Portfolio fits in the management of your overall wealth.

The All Seasons Portfolio should be the stable portfolio at the core of your assets, on top of which you can build with riskier investments. Therefore, to better understand this, in this post, first published on my eToro feed, we explore more closely how it fits in your personal finances.

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eToro Post – Systematic Trading and Strategic Rebalancing of Commodities

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This pot was originally shared on my eToro feed on 13 March 2022. Make sure to follow me there as well, and did you know that you can copy my trading there for free? Create an account today, copy my portfolio by searching for user "Allseasonsport" to automatically duplicate my All Seasons Portfolio strategy effortlessly.

The benefit of a systematic strategy - like the one I run here on eToro - rather than a discretionary strategy is that you don't get in your own way when following rules that are proven to work.

Hence, by taking a trader/person with cognitive biases out of the equation, you increase the probability of success by avoiding mistakes caused by limits of the human brain.

It is intuitively hard to buy assets that are trending, as it feels more expensive by the day when the price goes up, and you tell yourself you will "buy the dip".

The problem is that when that dip occurs, the trend may be broken and the asset is no longer an attractive buy. That is when our cognitive biases hinder us from success.

When we go against rules, we tend to make mistakes, as the rules were set in place for a reason.

Due to these rules, I will be strategically rebalancing Commodities and Long-Term Treasury Bonds in my eToro portfolio as they have exceeded their rebalancing spans. Read more about my reasoning here.

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eToro Post – Prediction vs. Preparation

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Is a good investment outcome always a sign of a great investment decision?

Intuitively, one could believe so, but more often than you might believe, that is actually not the case.

The past decade has favored stocks massively, meaning that investors who ignored diversified investment strategies and who applied poor risk management, have actually benefitted, while prudent investors have seen their neighbors get richer on meme stocks, cryptos and ARKK ETFs.

But are all these stock investors geniuses for achieving such a great outcome? Hardly. Such a belief among these investors – that they are superior investors – is just a form of outcome bias or “resulting” as described by Annie Dike in her book “Thinking In Bets”.

In short, this means that not all decisions with good results are necessarily good decisions.

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