The legendary credit investor Howard Marks (founder of Oaktree Capital Management) wrote an investor memo titled "You Can't Predict. You Can Prepare." in 2001.
Although more than 20 years have passed since these words were written, the message is almost eternal for investors.
The probability of consistently succeeding as an investor in this endeavor and regularly making money over decades is vanishingly small. This is why, as a capital manager, I constantly come back to the title of Howard Marks' memo, even though the memo was written from the perspective of a credit investors. Still, the words ring at least as true for a diversified macro-oriented portfolio, such as the All Seasons Portfolio.