July is well behind us, and now that most of the rate hikes in the US up to about 3.75-4.00% are expected and priced in, the All Seasons Portfolio got a bit of a revenge this past month with some positive performance.
The US inflation rate for July was just published as 8.5%, down from 9.1% in June, and below market expectations of 8.7%. It could be that inflation has peaked, as theorised by several market commentators and macro traders, and that the main fear on a forward-looking basis is weak growth.
We check out a few extra charts this month to find more perspective on what the market believes about inflation going forward. If expectations are coming down, there would be more room for new surprises to the upside that are not priced in.
It is wise - as always - to remain agnostic.