Low Economic Growth

The latest monthly portfolio update is now live with the June 2023 All Seasons Portfolio performance snapshot. After the disappointing May, June came with positive vibes.

May 2023 All Seasons Portfolio performance snapshot is now live on the blog. The month-over-month return retraced some of the April gains, but we remain up for the year.

April 2023 All Seasons Portfolio performance snapshot with a new look and feel. The focus is now shifted back to the portfolio, and the post is made lighter and easier to digest.

It is time for the combined February and March portfolio update, which were two months when the All Seasons Portfolio showed two different faces.

The US headline inflation rate keeps declining, landing at 6% in March.

All eyes are now fixed on economic growth, with investors searching for indicators of whether a recession is coming, and, if so, when it will hit. The rising interest rates are finding they ways to the economy, with the March banking scares being a symptom thereof (albeit a seemingly isolated event in SVB).

The US headline inflation rate is still coming down from high levels, having come in at 6.4% for January, and is in a clearly falling trend.

The now larger uncertainty is on the economic growth side, with the growth rate of real GDP barely holding above 0% on a YoY basis. If 2022 was a year focused on inflation, in 2023, the story will be about growth and whether a "soft landing" becomes possible.

2022 is over at last, and I am sure many have been looking forward to be closing the books for this eventful year and again start focusing on what lies ahead instead.

It has been one of those extremely rare years where three of the major asset classes - stocks, bonds, and gold - all have a bad year at the same time. This, of course, has had a negative impact also on the All Seasons Portfolio. While it is disappointing, this is an opportunity to train humility and remember that no strategy is always going to perform every year. Rather, over a cycle, we will witness good excess return over cash at lower volatility than the stock market.

At the time of writing this post (which comes out a bit late) 2023 has already commenced much stronger, and we are out the gates at a very good pace. While it is far too early to count the chickens before they hatch, at least we are getting some respite from the sour emotions of yesteryear.